Extremely hot ambient temperature and injury mortality

: 14h00, ngày 03/02/2023 (Thứ Sáu)

: P104 D3

: Machine Learning và Data Mining

: Le Tran Ngoan

: International University of Health and Welfare, Japan

Tóm tắt báo cáo

Objectives.  Little is known about the associations between scorching ambient temperatures and injury. This study aims to evaluate the effects of scorching ambient temperatures on total fatal injuries.

Methods. We use the negative binomial distributed lag non-linear model to describe the association between temperature and daily injury mortality. The trend variable, day of the week, and absolute humidity are used to control the confounding effects. Gender and age subgroup analyses are also carried out.

Results. For the entire study population with registered 3949 deaths due to injuries, after the onset of scorching ambient temperatures, a significantly increased risk of death is seen at the 9th day RR (95%CI): 1.44 (1.06, 1.97), reaches the peak at 12th day RR (95%CI): 1.58 (1.14, 2.17), and at 15th day RR (95%CI): 1.49 (1.08, 2.06). Males and elderly sub-populations are identified as the most vulnerable groups after exposure to high temperatures.

Conclusions. The findings motivate further investigation into the effect of the warming climate changes and the risk of the specific extra causes of deaths due to road traffic, suicides, work-related injury, inter-persons violated, and others.

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