Network Model and Risk Estimationin Epidemic Problem

Tóm tắt báo cáo

The COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam in the late January 2021 period poses many challenges. The two most important problems are early detection and localization of epidemic spots with a high risk of the outbreak. To deal with the problem, we introduce an effective approach through the application of graph theory. The graph has represented the map of an area, with two adjacent vertices are two adjacent communes on the map. Hence, we simulate the movement of patients as random walks on the graph to estimate the risk of outbreaking each commune. In this talk, we select Hanoi city as the target of the research. Hanoi city with more than 8 million people spread over 582 communes, combined with the complex population factor makes Hanoi very vulnerable and difficult to control.